Donald Trump's Ukrainian Peace Proposal Represents a Gift to Putin

For a brief period, Donald Trump gave the impression to embrace a resolute stance on the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering warnings of "significant consequences" in August should Vladimir Putin persisted blocking ceasefire negotiations, Trump eventually enacted substantial penalties on Russia's primary oil companies, these major energy companies. This move seriously impacted Putin's ability to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

But, through his latest detailed peace plan for the conflict, that was developed by both nations' representatives without Ukraine's or EU involvement, Trump has clearly gone back to his favorable to Russia approach.

Favoring Military Action

The former president's proposal would essentially benefit the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while putting the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite strong statements that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", significant aspects of the proposal actually compromise that essential sovereignty. Seen as a Russian ideal would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his real-estate experience, the former president persists to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a simple land disagreement, implying ceding Russia a part of Ukraine's soil will appease the president. Yet, Putin's military campaign is not merely about controlling a charred swath of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. It is about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent intention to weaken it so it ceases to functions as an appealing standard for the Russian people of the accountable governance that his growing autocracy prevents them.

Border Giveaways

While keeping in status the presently split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's proposal would require Ukraine to surrender the entire Donetsk region. Aside from favoring Russia with territory that its forces have been failed to capture in over a ten years of warfare, this surrender would render Ukraine's defenses critically undermined.

Donetsk is the site of Ukraine's well-known "stronghold system", the well-established military defenses that constitute a critical obstacle to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these positions, leaving Russian forces a unobstructed way to the capital in case he later decide to restart the conflict.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Furthermore, in a move that would enable future conflict simpler for the Russian military, the plan would mandate the nation to cut the numbers of its armed forces from their current 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a cap of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's plan sets no similar constraints on Russian forces.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's campaign to depict Ukraine's chosen by the people government as Nazis, Trump's plan asserts: "Every Nazi doctrine and activities must be rejected and forbidden." Apparently to underscore this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a peace deal. At the same time, the proposal imposes no requirement that the Russian leader endanger his dictatorship by allowing votes in Russia.

Security Guarantees

Admittedly, the plan has the Russian Federation commit not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in legislation its position of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". Yet considering that Putin has breached equivalent agreements in the previous instances – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government pledged to recognize the nation's sovereignty in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia promised to a halt in fighting and a handback of captured territory in the region to the government – why should anyone have confidence in Putin this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so insistent on western defense commitments. While the plan promises a "strong joint defense action" should the Russian Federation renew its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the details vary from unclear to concerning. The proposal would not just deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also prohibit alliance nations from positioning forces on Ukrainian territory, effectively preventing the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly led by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to deter Putin from restoring his diminished military, rearming, and resuming aggression.

Global Response

Another side agreement reportedly would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "serious, intentional, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an act of war threatening the tranquility of the transatlantic community." This indicates a armed reaction. However unlike a powerful Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable defense against renewed invasion – the success of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of Nato leaders, including Trump, to react with force to Russia's aggression, a response they have {not