A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
