Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.