War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been charged for interfering with or opposing the election under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a film promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to boycott the polls.

The military has been engaged on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".